Las Positas
2nd Event of 2002 Season 
Saturday, December 1, 2001

Elliott Friedman at the 1st tee, on his way to an improbable fourth consecutive first place finish.

Weather was a big question mark at Las Positas. In Oakland and Berkeley(and most of the Bat Area)rain and showers had been steady since the early morning hours. In disbelief many drove out to the course upon having phoned the course to learn that people were in fact being sent out. Upon approaching Livermore one couldn't help but notice the light colored clouds over the magic town. Once inside the Livermore weather bubble one felt a bit of unease. Could this really last? The darker wetter clouds lingered so near. After completing a few holes one eventually could almost forget the incredible oddity. Throughout the day an occasional slight sprinkling was the only evidence of precipitation. After completing his round, Steve Desimone, playing in the first foursome, phoned the North Bay and learned that rain had been torrential all day. Those that failed to show (fourteen people in all) have only these words, and the pictures herein as evidence of Livermore's magic weather bubble that resulted in their green fee donations to the club's coffers. As Woody Allen famously said, "90% of life is showing up." Elliott Friedman certainly showed up. The 2001 Golfer of the Year, won an incredible fourth consecutive tournament at Las Positas. Those in his flight doubtless feel his presence as a dark cloud that won't lift. Over the past two years, Elliott has placed either first or second in 12 of the 18 standard tournaments in which he played. The board is due to meet this coming week, and on the agenda is a proposal to rename the club in his honor. Just as the Yankees have purchased the A.L. Penant, the board may also consider offering Elliott lifetime title, "Golfer of the Year". In the first flight Dave Lozow edged out Dan Copenhagen with a 77(net 67). It marked the first time Dave has placed in 18 months. Rick Crawford captured the stunted second flight with a 78(net 68). Possibly for fear of wet weather, four people withdrew from the flight, leaving a small group of seven players to duke it out. Andrew Kang, playing well of late, took the third flight with a 69(net 85). Andrew was just thankful not to be grouped(as he usually is) in Elliott's flight. Indeed Elliott's score would have bested Andrew's had they been in the same flight. As noted Elliott captured the fourth flight, leaving Russell Greenwood and Bob McCaslin in the dust by six strokes. Bob Traum captured the fifth flight with a 94(net 69). Bob's six GOY points place him in a tie for second with Mark Steppan in the GOY standings, 4 points behind front-runner Elliott Friedman. Rounding out the large field, in the sixth flight, Jim Mehlfeld won the Blind Bogey flight, which was comprised of fifteen players, many of them new members.

Do you ever worry about being struck and killed by a bolt of lightning? Probably not. According to the National Safety Council(see report) the odds of being struck and killed by lightning are 1 in 55,928. Do you ever worry about winning four consecutive golf tournaments? Probably not. Especially if Elliot Friedman is in your flight. However if you happen to be Elliott Friedman, then throw out all those silly misconceptions about odds and probabilities. Elliott Friedman shot a net 69 at Las Positas and won his fourth consecutive tournament. The precise odds of this feat were 1 in 11,880, or slightly less than one-quarter the probability of being struck and killed by lightning.

What were the odds of a member winning a standard tournament if placed in Elliott Friedman's flight this past year? Ten is the average number of players that participate in a given flight so there's normally a 10% chance a given player will win a tournament. Those playing in Elliott's flight in the past year however had less than a 4.5% chance of winning a given tournament. When playing in a standard 10-person flight with Elliott last year it wasn't as if you were competing against nine others, it was as if you were competing in a 22-person flight with thirteen of them accounting for Elliott! Of course, past results have no bearing on future odds. Those members unfortunate enough to have been grouped in Elliott's flight over the past year should not be dismayed by these statistics. It was only a single lucky season, right? Not quite. Looking back over the past two years it must be noted that in the eighteen standard tournament events in which he has participated, Elliott has only failed to place four times. The odds of this occurring are somewhere in the neighborhood of 1 in 25 billion, and this is a very conservative estimate. Most people can't think in terms of billions. There are roughly six billion people on the planet. The odds of being randomly selected from Earth's population are over four times greater than the odds of performing as well as Elliott has over the past two seasons. During this stretch Elliott placed 78% of the time. He placed either 1st or 2nd 67% of the time. And 40% of the time he won his flight. Evidently Elliott is the luckiest golfer in the club, however those playing in his flight have not felt so lucky. Doubtless they would prefer Elliott take to Vegas his profound command over probability rather than squandering it in the third flight of the U.C. Golf Club. 

Below are pictures from the tournament. Captions will come later in the week. Complete flight results are below.  

Boyd McCaslin on the 11th tee. Boyd shot a 95(net 76) to take 3rd place in the fourth flight. It was the first time Boyd has placed since he came in third over two years ago.

Bob Traum warming up on the first tee. Bob placed first in the fifth flight. Bob shot a 94(net 69). The win catapulted Bob into a 2-way tie for second in the GOY standing, 4 behind Elliott Friedman. Bob has placed in six of the last nine tournaments in which he's played.

Bob McCaslin and Bob Traum discussing the first hole. Guest Kevin Traum digging for tees in the background.

Bob Traum on #1.

Chris Maters on #1. His 82(net 71) missed 3rd place by 1-stroke.

Ed Biglin on #1. Ed had a rough front nine, but fashioned a 41 over the last nine.

Mike O'Neill on #6. Mike shot an admirable net 73, but the score didn't hold up.

Todd Fitchen on watches his putt fall short on the #10.

Todd tosses the rubber snake back to Bill Hoover(who obviously was putting on a poor putting performance). Bill had thrown the snake at Todd’s feet to distract him. Todd would have none of it though, draining the put and giving the snake back to it's rightful owner.

Bill drains this 18-inch knee-knocker. Bill placed 4th in the fifth flight.

Guest Dave Vas sinks this short putt on #10.

Mark Steppan and Ralph Hill chatting on the practice green.

Mark got into trouble here on the 2nd hole. However, he scrambled for a par.

Mark hits his drive on #4. Mark just missed the money, placing 4th in the first flight.

Mark on #9. Mark completed the front nine with a 4-over par 40. The afterburners kicked in at the turn, with Mark shooting a 1-under 35 on the back nine.

Joel Walburg and Mark Boguski on the first hole. With over 15
tournaments between them this was the first time either of them placed. Mark shot an impressive 95(net 72). His 45 on the front was particularly fiery. Mark cruised home with a 50 on the back.

Mark tees off on #4. Just before this shot the sun momentarily broke through the clouds.

Mark on #9, capping an impressive net 33.5 on the front nine.

Mark staring down his fairway shot on the par 5 13th hole.

Joel hitting his drive on #4. Joel lost momentum on a just a few bad holes.

Joel trying to look professional(unsuccessfully) on #8. He looks OK here. Click to enlarge if you want to see something ugly.

Joel checking out his approach shot on #12.

Joel on #16.

Aaron Walburg wearing long pants on #11. This was his first "long pant" tournament. It worked ok. He placed 4th in the third flight, losing to Jeff Day by 1/2 stroke in the tie-breaker. Ironic, since the two were teammates at last month's Big Game Cup tournament.

Jerry Powell watches Scott Meredith's putt on #12. Jerry and Scott both had rough days, dominating the cellar of the fourth flight. In fact, Scott received the unenviable distinction of having posted the day's worst net score(88). Hey, at least it's something. When you're bad, it's best to be really bad, separate yourself from the rest of the field, and gain a bit of notoriety.

Elliott Friedman punches one into the lake on #9. This must have been Elliott's worst shot of the day, because he still managed an 88(net 69). Even with this shot he fashioned a net 33.5 on the front. Had he avoided the water he might have turned in a net 31.5 on the front.

Complete Results:

nc* - No contest - No one hit green.

(Results tabulated by club manager Steve Desimone and club president Ken Lloyd)

Highlighted Results:

1st Flight

2nd Flight

3rd Flight

    1st tie-breaker(L9 holes-1/2 CH):

4th Flight

5th Flight

Blind Bogey